air-cargo

Air Cargo Market Shows Cooling Trend as Peak Season Boost Fails to Materialize

The air cargo market is losing momentum heading into the second half of 2026, with limited signs of a traditional peak season surge. Carriers and freight forwarders face continued headwinds. July data revealed demand growth of 4% year-over-year while capacity expanded just 1%, pushing the cargo load factor to 61%. Spot rates declined to $3.40 per kg, though they remain 28% higher than year-ago levels due to fuel surcharges and regional conflict impacts. The deceleration is notable: year-over-year rate growth dropped from 38% in June and 41% in May. Industry discussions indicate minimal interest in charter capacity for peak season operations. Despite upgraded full-year demand forecasts driven by first-half performance, carriers face continued rate pressure as market conditions soften. Airlines are expected to defend pricing aggressively, though shippers may find relief as downward rate momentum persists through year-end.