breaking

Air Cargo Rates Expected to Rise 15% in 2026 as Iran-US Tensions Disrupt Supply

Long-term air freight contract rates are projected to climb 5% to 15% this year, reversing earlier forecasts for 5% to 10% declines. Renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States have curtailed airline capacity through the Middle East corridor, forcing more than 12% of global air cargo capacity offline through airspace closures, flight cancellations, and longer routing times. Demand growth accelerated to 7% year-over-year in June, driven by semiconductor shipments and AI-related hardware, which represents about 10% of total air cargo volume. This demand outpaced supply increases of just 3%. The imbalance pushed aircraft utilization to 62%, up 3 percentage points. Combined spot and long-term rates jumped 17% in the first half compared to last year, with spot rates surging 40% in May through June alone. Supply is now expected to grow only 2% for the full year, down from earlier projections of 2% to 4%.