air-cargo

Air Cargo Rates Forecast to Rise 5-15% in 2026 Amid Middle East Supply Shocks

Airfreight rates are expected to climb 5% to 15% this year, a sharp reversal from December forecasts predicting a 5% to 10% decline. The Middle East conflict escalation in February stripped 12% of global air cargo capacity from the market overnight, creating a severe supply-demand imbalance that has persisted through mid-year.

First-half 2026 data underscores the disruption: capacity grew just 1% while demand surged 4%, exceeding full-year projections. Global air cargo rates jumped 17% year-on-year in the first six months. Spot rates reached 40% above year-ago levels in May.

Demand growth expectations have shifted upward to the higher end of the 2% to 3% range, while capacity growth now projects toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% forecast. Industry observers expect demand to moderate through the second half as supply recovers, potentially tilting market dynamics back toward shippers by year-end.