ports

Air Cargo Rates Hold Firm Despite Middle East Uncertainty and Cooling Demand

Global air freight rates remain elevated despite anticipated softening in the second half of 2026. Weekly rates fell to $3.13 per kilogram by early July, down 1% week-on-week, but spot rates averaged $3.40 per kilogram in June—38% higher than year-ago levels. The pace of growth is decelerating from 41% year-over-year in May as Middle Eastern capacity returns and jet fuel costs retreat. Demand composition is shifting significantly, with artificial intelligence-related shipments now driving growth ahead of ecommerce traffic. Renewed regional tensions following ceasefire collapse have not yet prompted major airline operational changes. The market demonstrates resilience by adapting to geopolitical headwinds while managing structural shifts in cargo composition.