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Aluminum Supply Constraints Expected to Persist as Regional Tensions Disrupt Production

Tight aluminum market conditions will likely persist for a long time, according to Morgan Stanley's commodities analysis. The outlook reflects ongoing production disruptions stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Multiple smelters have gone offline, with many suffering damage that requires extensive repairs. This constrains global supply at a time when demand remains strong. Morgan Stanley's metals strategist cautioned that the market could stay quite tight for a long time given the severity of operational setbacks. Reports of potential diplomatic progress between the US and Iran have provided some relief to broader financial markets. However, aluminum-specific fundamentals remain constrained by physical supply limitations. Industry participants should prepare for sustained pricing pressure and limited availability in near-term procurement cycles.