Ports

Arctic Shipping Surge Masks Russia's Failed NSR Ambitions

The Northern Sea Route saw 104 vessel transits by September 30, surpassing all of 2025, yet this growth masks a strategic failure for Moscow's Arctic expansion plans. Russia set a 2018 target of 80 million tonnes annually by 2024 but achieved only 9 million tonnes that year and 37 million in 2025—marking the first decline since 2022. Rosatom forecasts 40 million tonnes this year, half the original goal and two years delayed. The transit surge stems not from planned commercial expansion but from rerouting caused by Suez Canal disruptions. Containerships moved 2.19 million teu through Suez in September, the highest volume since Houthi attacks began, with carriers expected to restore full operations there by Q1 2027. Arctic LNG 2 remains crippled by sanctions while Vostok Oil lags years behind schedule. Next summer will reveal whether current NSR traffic persists once Suez normalizes.