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Big and Bulky Last-Mile Growth Halves as Housing Market Stalls

The residential oversized delivery market is facing a significant slowdown as stagnant home sales crimp consumer spending on large discretionary purchases. The $10.6 billion sector is projected to grow just 5.1% annually through 2027, down sharply from 10.6% growth over the past eight years. Housing turnover hit a 30-year low last year, with only 28 homes per 1,000 changing hands—a 38% decline from 2021's peak of 44 per 1,000. Soaring home prices and locked-in sub-5% mortgage rates are keeping owners in place, dampening demand for furniture, appliances and exercise equipment. Major retailers including Amazon, Wayfair, Home Depot and Lowe's continue anchoring the market. However, third-party logistics providers supporting them face mounting pressure to deliver complex, cost-intensive services including white-glove delivery, installation and haul-away while maintaining margins.