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Covenant CEO: Freight Market Cooling to Sustainable Levels Ahead of Peak Season

The freight market is healthier than many carriers acknowledge, according to Covenant Logistics Group CEO David Parker. Load-to-truck ratios moderated to 1.5-to-1 in July and August from roughly 2-to-1 in the first half of 2025—a shift Parker characterized as sustainable for peak season operations. The cooling remains tight enough to support rate increases without flooding the market with new entrants. Most truckload carriers achieved double-digit rate increases in the second quarter, though operating ratios improved only marginally as costs rose proportionally. Parker said the industry needs another double-digit rate increase to maintain health. Meanwhile, 2 to 3 percent of industry capacity has already exited due to FMCSA enforcement. Parker forecasts a 3-to-4-year supercycle driven by domestic manufacturing investment and data center construction, with data centers remaining under development through 2032.