trucking

Demand Surge Narrows to AI Infrastructure Build-Out

Freight demand is rebounding, but growth concentrates in artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout. The May trucking ton-mile index climbed 0.4% year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking stronger performance than expected following soft volumes in late 2025. Professional and commercial equipment shipments rose 11%, while electrical goods surged 28.3%. Primary metals and machinery manufacturing also posted gains. Consumer-tied freight remains weak, with beverage manufacturing, furniture, paper, and wood products all declining year-over-year. The demand shift reshapes market dynamics for carriers, brokers, and shippers. Rate strength attribution shifted from roughly 90% supply-driven and 10% demand-driven to approximately 70/30, with demand gains concentrated in capital spending on infrastructure. The 2013-2014 freight cycle showed similar capex-driven strength during the fracking boom, suggesting historical precedent for caution.