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Diesel Price Calm Masks Structural Supply Crisis, Analysts Warn

Retail diesel prices have fallen to $4.83 per gallon, marking the first extended period below $5, but industry observers caution that apparent energy market stability conceals a looming supply disruption. Bank of America estimates more than 1 billion barrels of oil supply have been lost since March. Sustained inventory draws rather than genuine demand reduction explain the absence of a price spike, according to freight analysts. A potential tank-bottoms crisis could emerge within 4 to 6 weeks as petroleum storage approaches critical levels. Major producers including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates face challenges restarting shut-in production over the coming months. For 2026 budget planning, shippers should anticipate Brent crude trading near $70 per barrel, roughly $10 above pre-conflict baselines. The Strait of Hormuz transit introduces persistent geopolitical risk premiums that add uncertainty to forecasts.