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Dry Van Market Remains Tight Despite Rate Softening; Capacity Growth Lags Cost Pressures

FW Desk News

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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Dry van tender rejection rates have moderated to approximately 11% in recent months, yet this level continues to signal constrained capacity across the sector. Industry analysts caution that meaningful market relief remains unlikely as peak season approaches and carrier fleet expansion stalls.

Spot rates have stabilized following a slight pullback from the July 4th peak, according to the National Truckload Index. Major carriers report that input cost increases have outpaced revenue growth, discouraging new owner-operators from entering the market. The reduced cash flow availability constrains fleet expansion despite carriers maintaining profitability.

Regional disparities have widened considerably. Los Angeles emerged as the most stressed market, with 67% of rates climbing higher and spot pricing running 15% above contract levels. A potential West Coast port disruption threatens to intensify pressure there. Conversely, Savannah showed notable relief, with rejection rates falling to nearly 6% and spot rates dipping below contract benchmarks across roughly 7% of lanes.

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