Breaking

Freight Cycle Shows No Signs of Ending Soon, Analysis Warns

The current freight market cycle remains in its early stages, with industry participants who expect a near-term reversal facing significant miscalculation risk. This conclusion comes from Zach Strickland's analysis of two decades of shipping data.

Examination of the Cass Freight Shipments Index and Cass Truckload Linehaul Index reveals the market has endured at least six distinct disruptions since 2016. The current period represents one of the most volatile stretches in modern freight history.

Today's market structure traces back to 2004-2008, when diesel price volatility prompted fuel surcharges and the brokerage sector began taking its modern shape. The subsequent 2008-2009 freight recession marked one of the hardest periods on record, followed by relative stability from 2010-2016 characterized by predictable seasonal patterns.

Outbound Tender Rejection Rates stood at 12.73% in late October, though rising tender volumes alongside falling rejection rates signal mixed demand conditions. Historical cycles typically persist far longer than market participants anticipate.