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Freight Volumes Show First Recovery Signs After 40-Month Decline

Multimodal freight shipments posted their smallest year-over-year decline in 18 months during May, signaling a likely volume recovery in the second half of 2026. The Cass Freight Index registered a 1.2% decline, with May shipments up 3% sequentially from April. Domestic intermodal volumes climbed while multiple demand indicators pointed upward. Industry conditions favor growth despite tight inventories and falling tariffs. The expenditures index jumped 7% year-over-year—the largest increase since late 2022—driven by elevated fuel prices and rising freight rates. Linehaul rates climbed 6.9% annually, marking the largest gain in nearly four years. This extended a 17-month streak of year-over-year increases. Tight truckload capacity, reflected in elevated tender rejection rates, continues supporting rate strength as regulatory pressures constrain driver availability.