World Economy

Fuel Costs Expected to Remain Elevated Through Midterm Elections

Energy prices are expected to remain elevated before November's midterm elections, creating affordability headwinds for voters. Market participants estimate an 87% probability that the national average gasoline price will stay above $4 per gallon on Election Day, with current prices hovering near $4.56. Diesel faces similar pressures, with a 68% likelihood of remaining above $6 per gallon through November after peaking near $6.28 in September. The U.S.-Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March triggered initial price spikes that have persisted through summer. Elevated diesel costs particularly burden agricultural states including Iowa and Kansas, as well as Alaska, which depends heavily on diesel for electricity generation. All three states feature competitive midterm races.