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Global Oil Inventories Face Critical Depletion as Hormuz Strait Closure Persists

Global crude inventories are declining at record rates due to prolonged Middle East supply disruptions, with stockpiles potentially reaching historic lows by late May if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to industry analysis.

Inventories stood just above 8 billion barrels in late February but are expected to fall to 7.6 billion barrels by month's end under current demand conditions. Only approximately 800 million barrels remain available for use without straining the supply chain, leaving minimal operational cushion.

As commercial reserves dwindle below functional thresholds, oil prices are likely to surge ahead of summer peak demand, industry observers warn. Crude stockpiles have absorbed the initial shock of regional disruptions. However, sustained closure of the critical waterway will force markets to rely on increasingly expensive supply alternatives, driving consumer fuel costs higher before the third quarter.