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Goldman Sachs Warns of Competing Pressures on Oil Markets Amid Middle East Tensions

Goldman Sachs identifies conflicting forces shaping crude oil markets as weakening demand collides with supply disruptions stemming from regional conflict. Recent April sales figures from China and Western Europe suggest demand could fall 2 million barrels daily below the bank's current forecasts, according to analysts led by Daan Struyven. This demand weakness poses about $10 per barrel of downside risk to Goldman's fourth-quarter Brent crude projection of $90, according to the analysis. Middle East instability threatens to constrain global supplies, yet this upward pressure faces headwinds from slowing consumption across major economies. The competing dynamics leave energy markets vulnerable to sharp swings as demand and geopolitical developments evolve through the remainder of 2026.