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Housing Slowdown Cuts Big-and-Bulky Delivery Growth in Half

The last-mile delivery sector for furniture, appliances, and exercise equipment is decelerating sharply. The residential real estate market cooldown has driven this slowdown, with annual growth in the segment dropping to roughly 5% through 2027, down from a consistent 10% expansion over the previous eight years, according to Armstrong & Associates and the National Home Delivery Association.

Higher mortgage rates between 6% and 7% are deterring homeowners with locked-in low rates from relocating, while elevated property prices keep prospective buyers out of the market. Fewer home sales translate directly to reduced demand for white-glove delivery installations.

Tariff pressures on steel-intensive appliances added strain last year, though those costs have normalized. Discretionary spending remains constrained despite easing tariff volatility. Intense competition from new entrants over the past decade has compressed margins across the sector. Industry leaders expect consolidation as operators pursue scale efficiencies to offset rural and suburban delivery economics.