air-cargo

IATA Cuts 2026 Air Cargo Growth Forecast Amid Middle East Disruptions

The International Air Transport Association has lowered its cargo volume projections for 2026 following first-half disruptions tied to Middle East conflict. Air cargo volumes are now expected to reach 71 million tonnes, a downward revision from the 2% growth prediction made at March's World Cargo Symposium. March saw a 4.8% year-on-year demand decline measured in cargo tonne kilometers, though April rebounded with 4% growth. Through four months, volumes gained 3%. Despite softer demand, cargo revenue is forecast at $162 billion, up 7% annually, as airlines recover fuel surcharge increases stemming from Strait of Hormuz closure. Cargo yields are projected to grow 6.5% after three consecutive years of decline. Jet fuel costs remain a critical pressure point, expected to surge nearly 40% from $252 billion to $350 billion. Airlines' overall profits will decline to $23 billion from $45 billion in 2025.