world-economy

Inflation Peak Behind Us as Energy Prices Retreat, Market Traders Signal

Prediction market speculators now assess only a 28% probability that headline inflation will exceed 4.2% for the full year. This signals widespread belief that May's 4.2% annual rate represents the peak.

Energy prices, which drove 60% of monthly price increases from April to May, have retreated sharply following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the February U.S.-Iran conflict.

National average gasoline prices fell to $3.84 per gallon this week, down from above $4, while crude oil dipped below $70 per barrel for the first time since hostilities began.

Market participants expect the June Consumer Price Index report, due July 14, to reflect cooling pressures. Traders estimate June prices will decline 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with Wall Street consensus forecasts.