world-economy

Market Speculators Forecast Softer July Jobs Growth Than Economist Consensus

Prediction market traders on Kalshi are pricing in weaker July employment growth than mainstream forecasts. Speculators assign just 47% odds that U.S. employers added more than 80,000 positions during the month, below the 85,000-job consensus estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The traders estimate a 60% probability of job gains exceeding 70,000, but also see a one-in-three chance that hiring fell below 60,000. An upside surprise remains possible, with traders placing a 41% probability of 90,000 jobs added and roughly 33% odds of six-figure growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July employment report on Friday. Last month, market speculators incorrectly forecast stronger hiring, predicting 125,000-plus jobs added versus the actual 57,000 gain reported.