world-economy

Market Traders Bet Trump Will Announce Major China Aircraft Deal

Prediction market traders are assigning an 86% probability that President Donald Trump will announce a significant Boeing aircraft purchase during his Beijing meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Wall Street is responding positively, with Boeing shares advancing nearly 2% ahead of the talks. Analysts suggest the potential order could reach triple-digit billions, marking the largest such announcement ever.

Beyond aircraft, traders are placing more than 81% odds on extending the tariff truce from October negotiations. Under that previous accord, China paused rare earth export controls while the U.S. reduced fentanyl-related tariffs to 10% from 20%. Additional commodity purchases appear likely, with traders forecasting 79% odds of soybean commitments and only 24% probability for oil purchases. According to Barclays, tariff reductions could move lower if China purchases American aircraft, oil, and soybeans.