world-economy

Market Traders Doubt Iran's Swift Strait of Hormuz Recovery Timeline

Traders are casting doubt on Iran's claim that the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal operations within a month of reaching a peace agreement with the United States. Prediction market participants are pricing in only a 38% probability that traffic flows through the critical waterway will normalize by July 1, based on IMF PortWatch data defining normal as a seven-day moving average transit volume of 60. That represents an uptick from the 32% odds traders assessed before recent diplomatic reports emerged. For an August 1 target, traders see a 60% likelihood of normalization, up from 50-50 odds before the latest developments. Iran's state television cited a draft memorandum framework with the U.S., though the White House denied any such framework exists. These probabilities remain well below the 50% odds traders assigned on Sunday when a near-term deal announcement appeared imminent.