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Market Traders Doubt Iran Timeline for Hormuz Strait Reopening

Financial markets are sending mixed signals on the likelihood of a near-term resolution to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trading data suggests skepticism about diplomatic timelines even as equities rally on deal speculation.

Wall Street has pushed stocks toward record highs on reports that the U.S. and Iran may be approaching a breakthrough. This could restore normal shipping through the critical waterway within a month of any agreement. However, traders betting real money on the outcome remain unconvinced the reopening would occur within the timeframe under discussion.

The divergence reflects broader uncertainty about whether markets are properly pricing in geopolitical risks. Oil prices have retreated as investors weigh the possibility of restored supply flows. Bond markets have also moved higher on the diplomatic optimism. The Trump administration has signaled no urgency on negotiations ahead of midterm elections.