world-economy

Market Traders Forecast Higher Treasury Yields Despite Bessent's Intervention Efforts

Prediction market participants are skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's push to stabilize rising yields. Traders on Kalshi estimate a 56% probability the 10-year Treasury yield will finish 2026 at or above 4.75%, with just 27% odds it closes above 5%. The 10-year yield was trading near 4% in midday Monday activity. Polymarket speculators assign two-in-three odds the yield will breach 4.8% during 2026, a threshold not yet reached despite recent bond market weakness. The Treasury announced doubled buyback operations last week following a global bonds sell-off triggered by inflation concerns and the national debt crossing $40 trillion. While Treasury yields initially declined on the buyback announcement, they subsequently rose. Officials suggested the department may deploy its $1 trillion General Account to fund increased repurchase operations.