world-economy

Nasdaq-100 Seen Flat Through Year-End as Tech Rally Loses Momentum

Prediction market traders are estimating the Nasdaq-100 will finish 2026 above 30,000, but see limited upside beyond that level for the remainder of the year. The tech-heavy index has gained 18% in 2026, surging more than 33% between late March and early June following geopolitical tensions and renewed confidence in artificial intelligence investments. Traders assign 50-50 odds the index closes above 30,000 by year-end. Contracts indicate just 40% probability it reaches 32,000 and 27% likelihood it exceeds 33,000. The intraday peak came June 3 at 30,762. Fading bullish sentiment reflects concerns that the technology sector's leadership may be waning. UBS analysts suggest the broader market rally could extend into the second half, potentially with non-tech sectors outperforming. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 this week.