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North American Rail Traffic Gains Signal Industrial Strength Despite Carload Softness

Total North American rail traffic climbed 2% in week 30, though the headline figure masks underlying economic vigor when coal is excluded from the calculation, according to Association of American Railroads data. Carloads declined 0.4% for the week but are running 4% ahead of year-ago levels on a year-to-date basis, a pace that closely mirrors industrial production growth. Seven of ten commodity groups posted gains. Steel-related commodities led performance, with metallic ores jumping 16% and scrap iron surging 20%. Grain traffic rose 4%, maintaining recent momentum. Chemicals slipped 2%, potentially reflecting input-cost pressures from oil-price volatility. Total intermodal traffic increased 4%. The carload trajectory suggests the industrial economy is maintaining steady expansion rather than accelerating sharply.