world-economy

Oil Markets Defy Dire Forecasts Despite Iran Strait Closure

Ten weeks into the Iran conflict, crude markets are confounding expectations. Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, nearly 14 million barrels—representing 14% of global oil output—are lost from supply channels. Industry assessments suggest at least 2 billion barrels will vanish from 2026 totals even if waterway access opens immediately. Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran show no signs of progress. Yet Brent crude remains anchored at $107 per barrel, significantly below the $129 mark reached following Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion and nowhere near the $150-200 range analysts had projected for an extended regional conflict. The disconnect between geopolitical risk and market pricing has deepened into an enduring puzzle for commodity observers.