ports

Panama Canal Maintenance and Geopolitical Disruption Threaten Congestion

Scheduled maintenance at the Panama Canal beginning June 9 threatens to intensify congestion already strained by geopolitical tensions and shifting trade patterns. Work on the Gatun Locks' East Lane dry chamber will reduce available panamax slots from 26 to 16 through June 17. Average wait times have climbed 60% since conflict erupted in the Middle East, now hovering near 48 hours, according to analysis from SEB. Carriers rerouting energy shipments around closed chokepoints are driving unprecedented demand for slots, with neopanamax auction prices reaching $4 million—29 times normal rates. Canal authorities maintain throughput remains at 36-38 vessels daily, but mounting pressure could escalate. Climate forecasters predict an 82% probability El Niño returns before July, potentially reducing water levels and further complicating operations during the critical maintenance window.