World Economy

Prediction Markets Signal Stronger September Jobs Growth Than Economist Consensus

Traders on prediction markets are pricing in a more robust employment report than Wall Street expects for September. On Kalshi, roughly 60% of traders are wagering the U.S. added more than 90,000 payroll positions, with nearly even odds the figure exceeded 100,000. Similar sentiment appears on Polymarket, where traders assign approximately 50-50 probability to a six-figure jobs gain. Both outlooks outpace the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 84,000 positions. The divergence reflects confidence following August's surprisingly strong 162,000-job increase. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official September employment data Friday at 8:30 a.m. ADP's national employment report precedes it Wednesday at 8:15 a.m., providing an early indicator ahead of the government's comprehensive figures.