ports

Regional Trade Pacts Reshape Container Shipping Outlook

A structural shift toward regional commerce is poised to redefine container shipping dynamics through the coming decade, according to Braemar analysis of World Bank projections. The number of regional trade agreements has nearly doubled since 2020, climbing from approximately 300 to nearly 400 pacts, now accounting for 60% of global trade versus 40% three decades ago. Braemar expects growth to concentrate increasingly on intra-Asia, intra-African and nearshoring corridors including Mexico-US and Eastern Europe-EU routes rather than traditional east-west lanes. Global growth forecasts stand at 2.5% this year with container volumes expanding 2%, presenting near-term headwinds despite longer-term prospects. Vessel ordering patterns reflect the transition, with only 114 of 1,621 containerships on order classified as ultra-large 20,000-teu vessels. This indicates owner preference for regional and mid-sized tonnage over megaships.