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RXO Projects Further Spot Rate Gains in Q2 as Driver Capacity Tightens

Freight broker RXO expects truckload spot rates to climb further in the second quarter. First-quarter results showed a four-year high, driven by regulatory constraints on driver availability rather than robust freight demand.

The company's Curve Report showed linehaul spot rates jumped 16.5% year-over-year in Q1, marking the strongest growth since Q3 2021. Tender rejection rates hit their highest levels since 2022 during the typically slow Q1 season, with volatility outpacing normal seasonal patterns.

RXO said the tight capacity environment is expected to persist through Q2 as summer shipping peaks. Contract rates increased 2% in Q1, with carriers now anticipating higher rate increases than the low- to mid-single-digit gains projected at year-start. The company warned shippers to brace for a significantly altered freight environment throughout the second half of 2026.