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Semiconductor Surge Masks Deeper Weakness in Air Cargo Market

Air freight demand expanded 4% year-over-year through June 2026, defying early-year pessimism. However, the sector's recovery rests on a narrow foundation. Semiconductor shipments have become the dominant growth driver. They offset an e-commerce slump and sustain transpacific load factors at practical capacity ceilings. The market's heavy reliance on a single demand category presents structural risk. CFOs at forwarding companies should be concerned about this dependence. Without diversified demand sources, air freight operators remain vulnerable to supply chain disruptions or shifts in technology manufacturing patterns.