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Shippers Brace for Double Fuel Hit as July BAFs Coincide with Rate Hikes

Freight forwarders and shippers face mounting pressure as new bunker adjustment factors take effect July 1. The revised BAFs will stack additional costs atop existing emergency fuel surcharges and will reflect fuel expenses from the previous quarter when the Hormuz closure drove crude prices higher. Carriers are simultaneously implementing general rate increases, peak season surcharges, and spot rate hikes. Industry observers warn that some carriers applied emergency fuel surcharges in March and April following conflict-related price spikes, particularly on US-bound lanes where Federal Maritime Commission regulations required 30-day notice periods. The concern: overlapping charges may capture the same elevated bunker cost environment twice. If the US-Iran ceasefire holds and shipping through Hormuz resumes, crude prices could decline even as shippers absorb the cumulative July increases. This timing mismatch could disadvantage customers paying for fuel costs that are already falling.