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SpaceX-Tesla Merger Speculation Intensifies as Market Odds Shift Sharply

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives says SpaceX and Tesla are positioned to combine by next year, creating synergies between the two companies under shared CEO Elon Musk. The proposed merger would strengthen Musk's control of the artificial intelligence ecosystem, according to Ives. Market sentiment remains divided. Traders on Kalshi assigned only 33% odds to a merger before May 2027, with significantly lower probabilities for earlier dates. Volatility spiked last week when merger odds dropped roughly 40 percentage points in a single day after reaching nearly 77% for an April 2027 deadline. Both companies are already collaborating on Terafab, a semiconductor fabrication facility in East Texas. The project is valued at up to $119 billion and would produce chips for Tesla and SpaceX operations.