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Tariff Rush, Not Recovery, Fueling May Freight Surge

National dry van spot rates have climbed more than 20% year-over-year as of mid-May 2026. The freight surge is driven by importers pulling inventory ahead of tariff escalations on goods from China, Mexico and Canada—artificial demand that will evaporate once warehouses fill. Flatbed volumes are running nearly 50% above year-ago levels on construction materials and steel tied to reshoring activity. Refrigerated capacity has tightened ahead of produce season with similar year-over-year rate gains. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index is hovering near 14%—levels unseen since 2022—signaling tight capacity. However, carriers capturing this surge face a familiar post-front-load problem: once shippers complete their inventory buildup, freight dries up while costs remain elevated, pressuring margins.