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Truckload and LTL Rates Climb to New Peaks as Capacity Tightens in Q2

Truckload and less-than-truckload rates reached fresh highs in the second quarter as the freight sector rebounds from a nearly four-year contraction. The TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index's rate-per-mile component hit a 14-quarter peak, climbing 16% above January 2018 baseline levels. The index is expected to reach 17.7% above baseline in Q3. Capacity constraints and elevated diesel costs are driving the gains, with more than 48,000 non-compliant drivers exiting the industry over the past year. Small carriers face particular pressure, with tight margins and fuel-cost burdens keeping many vehicles sidelined. Large truckload carriers benefit most from the supply-side correction. At investor conferences, carrier management teams disclosed surging mini-bid activity. Early contractual rates for the 2026 bid season proved too low. Carriers are targeting double-digit rate increases for 2026 and 2027 to restore profitability.