world-economy

U.S., China Cushion Oil Markets as Hormuz Closure Deepens

Ten weeks into the Iran war, crude prices remain surprisingly stable despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. The closure eliminates 14 million barrels of daily global output. At least 2 billion barrels will disappear from 2026 supply projections. Yet Brent crude trades at $107 per barrel—significantly below the $129 reached following Russia's Ukraine invasion and far below the $150-200 range analysts anticipated for a prolonged conflict. Stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran offer little prospect for near-term reopening. America and China are shielding the world from an oil catastrophe, though their ability to maintain this stabilization remains uncertain.