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U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Hold Steady as Ceasefire Agreement Advances

Prediction market traders are pricing in roughly 55% odds that Washington and Tehran will finalize a nuclear agreement by November, according to Kalshi traders. The probability of a deal before October stands at 49%, while chances before year-end sit at 55%. The two countries have reached agreement on a ceasefire framework, though nuclear demands still require intensive negotiations. As part of any accord, Iran will forswear nuclear weapons development and address disposal of highly enriched uranium. A 60-day memorandum of understanding remains pending Trump administration approval following three months of conflict. The pact would guarantee unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, require Iran to remove all mines within 30 days, and eliminate vessel tolls or harassment. U.S. officials retain economic and military options should Iran fail to meet nuclear obligations during negotiations.