World Economy

Democratic Senate Prospects Brighten as Energy Costs Surge

Prediction markets signal Democrats hold their strongest position in months to capture Senate control heading into November elections. On Kalshi, Democratic odds stand at 54%, nearly matching April peaks. Polymarket shows higher odds at 59% for a Democratic takeover. Republicans defend 20 of 33 contested Senate seats, forcing Democrats to flip traditionally red states including Alaska, Texas and Ohio—all won by President Trump by double-digit margins in 2024. Democratic momentum accelerated following rising gasoline prices and elevated crude costs that eroded Trump administration approval ratings. Oil prices now exceed $100 per barrel with national gasoline averaging above $4 per gallon, while diesel prices hit record levels. Market speculators anticipate further energy price increases through year-end. A New York Times/Siena University poll released Wednesday showed likely voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates by close to 9% in their districts.