World Economy

Prediction Markets Signal Modest August Job Growth After July Losses

Speculators on prediction market platforms are pricing in a tepid rebound in U.S. job creation for August following July's employment contraction.

Traders on Kalshi are offering even odds that the economy added more than 50,000 jobs last month, slightly below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 53,000 positions created.

On Polymarket, the probability of job gains exceeding 50,000 stands at 48%.

The cautious outlook reflects recent forecasting misses. Both prediction market traders and economists overestimated payroll growth in June and July. Expectations for six-figure job creation in June proved optimistic when actual figures landed just below 60,000. July unexpectedly posted job losses.

Traders on Kalshi see substantial uncertainty ahead, pricing in roughly 25% odds the economy lost jobs in August and similar probability that creation exceeded 80,000. The official Bureau of Labor Statistics report arrives at 8:30 a.m.