Breaking

Freight Cycles Defy Prediction Despite 25 Years of Data

The domestic freight market has cycled through distinct periods of volatility and stability since 2000, with patterns that remain difficult to forecast. The Cass Freight Shipments Index tracks truckload, intermodal and LTL activity, while the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index measures base rates. Together, these indices reveal how each downturn and recovery differs fundamentally from its predecessor. The early 2000s saw demand remain depressed longer than the broader economy following the dot-com collapse and 9/11 fallout. Starting in 2004, exceptional growth followed, fueled by low interest rates and housing expansion. Volatile fuel prices and capacity constraints during this period drove freight brokerage expansion and owner-operator proliferation. The 2008 housing collapse triggered the Great Recession, with weakness extending into 2010. The subsequent 2011-2015 recovery established what many market participants viewed as normal freight operations, marked by consistent 12-month seasonality and steady 3% annual base rate growth.