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Freight Market 'Fragile' Despite Recent Stability, Analysts Tell Shippers

Tender rejection rates remain volatile as the trucking market grapples with competing pressures, according to industry observers addressing shippers in New York Tuesday.

The Sonar Tender Rejection Index has oscillated sharply in recent weeks, dipping below 14% after reaching above 17% in June before spiking upward again ahead of the gathering at the TWA Hotel at JFK Airport.

Market analysts attribute the instability to carriers struggling with capacity constraints and mounting rate pressures. Tender rejections—contracted freight declined by carriers under acceptable contractual terms—serve as a key indicator of freight market health.

While rejection rates have climbed beginning in November 2025, current conditions remain far milder than pandemic-era disruptions. A series of spring disruptions have amplified market fragility. These include Road Check week and regulatory developments surrounding carrier liability and selection. This occurred despite intermittent periods of relative stability.