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North American Railcar Fleet Shrinks Despite Rising Freight Demand

The North American railcar fleet is contracting even as freight volumes strengthen. Trinity Industries' chief financial officer Eric Marchetto said the industry will build roughly 25,000 railcars this year while scrapping more than 35,000 units, resulting in a net fleet deficit. Association of American Railroads data showed total carloads rose 1.6% year-over-year in week 39. Intermodal car storage has fallen to a six- to seven-year low. Marchetto warned that shippers and lessors may face elevated prices if freight demand accelerates further. Tariff uncertainty has frozen fleet planning decisions, with policies shifting weekly and making capital expenditure planning difficult. Steel costs, interest rates, and lease rates are all climbing heading into 2026, further complicating expansion economics.