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Relaxed CAFE Standards Offer Modest Lift to Auto Manufacturing, Not Truckload Demand

The Department of Transportation's revised fuel economy standards finalized in December 2025 provide a small boost to domestic vehicle production but fall short of reviving freight demand. The rule lowers fuel economy requirements through model year 2031 and allows automakers greater flexibility in product mix. New-vehicle prices are expected to drop $1,300 on average, saving consumers $138 billion over five years. However, capacity erosion—not increased freight volume—remains the primary driver of current truckload market tightness. Industry data indicates accepted truckload volume is flat to declining year-over-year, while tender rejections have nearly tripled. The regulatory changes are expected to generate only a 0.5 percent to 2 percent increase in light-vehicle output by 2027-2028, concentrated in Midwest and Southeast auto corridors. This represents less than 0.1 percent of national truckload volume.