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Air Cargo Rates Surge 30% as AI Equipment Demand Defies Recession Fears

Air cargo rates climbed 30 percent year-over-year while volumes expanded roughly 6 percent, bucking analyst expectations for significant market weakness. Ocean shipping disruptions, reduced Middle East carrier capacity, and surging demand for artificial intelligence hardware powered the unexpected strength. The resilience marks a sharp reversal from 2024's post-pandemic contraction.

AI equipment shipments have become the market's primary structural support, offsetting headwinds from stricter de minimis import regulations and slower automotive exports from Europe. Kuehne+Nagel noted the equipment demand surge helped compensate for reduced parcel volumes.

Meanwhile, Walmart is scaling drone delivery nationwide across nearly 300 locations using both Wing and Zipline. Wing plans a $125 million Texas manufacturing facility for delivery aircraft production, while Zipline secured $5 billion in funding partly for manufacturing expansion. Both companies are positioning for anticipated FAA rulemaking expected to clarify beyond-line-of-sight drone operations.