Breaking

Truckload Rejections Double Despite Soft Peak Season Momentum

Tender rejection rates have climbed to 12.8%, double last year's 6% level, yet the freight market is displaying unexpected softness ahead of the critical holiday shipping period. The rejection index has slipped only about 1 percentage point over the last 20 days, raising concerns about whether carriers can sustain strong fourth-quarter volumes into 2027 contract negotiations. November outbound tender volumes show more promise, averaging 11,434 — up 12% year-over-year and 3% from October. This marks the first significant demand surge heading into Thanksgiving. Refrigerated freight stands out as the strongest segment, with reefer rejections at 21% versus 12.6% last year, driven by holiday food shipments and tightening capacity. Forecasters warn that a super El Niño could further strain refrigerated capacity this winter for protect-from-freeze shipments. Meanwhile, dry van rates have stalled while flatbed premiums hold steady on data center construction demand.