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Diesel Soars Past Records While Gasoline Lags, Exposing Market Disconnect From Crude Oil

Diesel prices have shattered previous records while gasoline remains roughly 70 cents below its 2022 high, creating an unprecedented split between the two fuels. The divergence threatens carrier margins across the industry, since fuel represents a carrier's single largest variable cost.

Diesel surpassed its 2022 record of $5.50 per gallon weeks ago and has eased only slightly. Gasoline hovers near $4 without meaningful relief expected. This volatile stretch, running since March with brief cooling in June and July before surging again in August and September, represents the single most volatile period tracked by GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan since 2009.

Unlike the 2022 inflation episode when gasoline and diesel moved in tandem, this disconnect reveals a fundamental market truth: crude oil prices bear diminishing influence on refined fuel costs. Refineries convert raw crude into distinct products with separate supply-and-demand dynamics, meaning the commodity benchmark most observers follow tells only part of the story for trucking's largest variable expense.