Breaking

Autonomous Trucks Projected to Match Driver-Cost Parity by 2028

Autonomous trucks will reach cost-per-mile parity with conventional rigs around 2028, according to research from Kearney and the MIT Mobility Initiative. The analysis projects driverless operations at $4 per mile in 2026, compared to $2.50 for driver-operated trucks, converging at roughly $2 per mile in two years.

The US will achieve this milestone ahead of Europe by two years and the Middle East by four years, driven by significantly higher American driver compensation. A fully loaded US long-haul driver costs approximately $10,000 monthly including benefits—roughly double European rates and quadruple Middle East costs.

Commercial autonomous deployment remains geographically limited, though Aurora has logged over 500,000 driverless miles on public roads. The cost model incorporates data from 25+ interviews with autonomous developers, manufacturers, carriers, and investors. Researchers project driverless costs will decline 49% to $2 per mile by 2035, primarily through spreading development expenses across larger fleets.