Breaking

Carriers Reject Loads at 4x Normal Rate as Capacity Crisis Deepens

The trucking market faces a structural capacity shortage, with carriers rejecting loads at unprecedented levels despite stable freight volumes. Tender rejection rates have climbed to roughly 14%, triple 2023 levels. Meanwhile, truckload volumes over three years increased just 9%. This divergence is stark: carriers are declining nearly four times as many loads on comparable freight, signaling a supply-side crisis rather than cyclical demand weakness.

For-hire tractor counts fell approximately 51,000 in August alone. New fleet tractor additions, which peaked near 47,000 in mid-2022, have declined steadily despite sustained elevated rejections.

Net carrier authority additions turned positive in 2026, reaching above 2,000 weekly in late August and September. However, actual capacity growth remains constrained. New authority grants ran 17% below first-quarter levels. Only two-thirds of new interstate registrants obtained liability insurance compared with nine in ten during the 2019 cycle. The source cautions that authority numbers can be misleading: in the last capacity boom, authorities rose 51% while actual tractor counts rose only 12%.

Driver availability compounds the crisis. Over 202,000 CDL holders are sidelined for drug and alcohol violations, while proficiency enforcement removes additional drivers from the market.