Ports

Ocean Freight Booking Risk Persists on Key Asia Routes Through October

Elevated booking risks will persist across major Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trade lanes over the next four weeks. The primary drivers are weak schedule reliability rather than capacity constraints, according to WiseTech Global's new Ocean Freight Risk Outlook.

The demand-to-supply ratio on Asia-North America is forecast to climb from 76% in week 37 to 100% in week 38, before declining to 79% and rebounding to 91%. WiseTech attributed the temporary tightening to reduced planned carrier capacity rather than demand growth.

Booking security risk is expected to hover around or exceed historical averages, reaching just above 40% in later weeks. On-time performance deteriorated significantly, falling from 43% in May to 33.9% in August, with weekly performance dipping to 29%. One-to-three-day delays have emerged as the most common outcome, surpassing on-time arrivals. Port performance remains below historical benchmarks.